Getting Tough on Migration: A Reality Check

Shabana Mahmood’s arrival at the Home Office has certainly created a political storm in Westminster. After her tough announcements in Parliament this week on both legal and illegal (can I say that, or is it still irregular?) migration, some have labelled her the new Iron Lady. (Although it’s hard to see this lady as not for turning, given that she was advocating for an amnesty for undocumented illegal entrants not so long ago.)

Her proposals to extend the period for which migrants might qualify for settlement in the U.K. - and to reform support arrangements for asylum seekers and increase FAS removals - are straight from the new Conservative playbook. Some are even arguing that she is the new Nigel Farage of the Labour Party. So much so that some of the left wing backbenchers are shouting “shock horror” at these new proposals - along with predictable criticisms from the pro immigration Liberal Democrats and the Greens.

But what’s it all about, Shabana? What will your legacy be? After all, we all know that announcements like these can take months if not years to become reality. The Conservatives spent 3 years trying to get their Rwanda plan off the ground, and still never made it in the end. Opponents in the Commons, the Lords and the judiciary will not rush through anything they don’t agree with. Easier to press for more amendments, debates, consultations and hearings than to rubber stamp a deal they don’t like the look of.

To be fair to Rishi Sunak, he spotted that the migrant boats were the biggest political headache to be tackled in the vast swathe of immigration and asylum laws and policies. Sure, his slogan to “stop the boats” was misguided (because without significant help from the French that was never going to happen) - but it had that ring to it that touched the nation. In the same way that Dominic Cummings and Boris Johnson swayed the nation over Brexit, by promising to “take back control” of pretty well everything, including immigration. (Which they patently failed to do especially on legal migration, where we are still paying the price for the “Boriswave”.)

Likewise, Keir Starmer’s plan to “smash the gangs” was never going to work either. At least not without a removals deterrent to go with it. So what is Shabana’s plan? And what is her end game?

Actually, on legal migration she has a very good chance of driving down the net migration figure without doing too much, other than keeping a grip on the UKVI visa grant rate. The ONS has finally woken up to the idea of using Home Office and other government department databases to find out how many people are really coming in and leaving every year, rather than conducting pretty ineffective surveys of passengers at our ports. These figures show a rapid decline in the net migration figures to 345k in 2024 from a high of 944k in FY 2022 - 2023. OK so that might be more Brits going out than migrants going home, but that can be lost in the weeds somewhere.

Of course there will be mud slinging between the parties as to who achieved this massive reduction, with the outgoing Tory government saying they did it by repairing some of the mad Boris visa policies of the preceding years. But Shabana will no doubt claim some credit for it; and we are not far short of the 330k figure in 2015 which prompted the outcry for the Brexit referendum.

By retaining sensible restrictions to visa policy over the next couple of years - and by implementing some of the measures announced this week - she should be able to fend off the worst of the right wing critics going forward. She will of course have to persuade her cabinet colleagues that immigration is not (generally) good for the economy - fending off Treasury and other Departments who have had their way on this for far too long now. But if the PM backs her, then she could be on a winner there.

But at the end of the day it won’t be this that draws back votes from Reform, in my view. It’s what she does about illegal entry, asylum intake and small boats in particular. This is what touches the nation the most. They will still see media pictures of undocumented migrants pouring off Border Force vessels in Dover, mostly bound for hotels and HMOs in the communities which threatens their safety and way of life. They won’t be swayed by the fact that the numbers are relatively small in the overall scheme of things, when weighed against reductions elsewhere. They see it simply as a government that is failing to secure their borders, which simply won’t do.

Bleating about removal figures going up without a clear breakdown as to how many of those came in by small boat won’t be enough to hoodwink people. That includes not just voters in the UK, but also migrants in Calais waiting to cross.

Despite the strong messages on tougher measures this week, there is still no significant indication to say that illegal entrants coming by small boat by France will be denied access to the U.K. asylum system, detained and deported. This is easier said than done - but will certainly be said by Reform and Conservative opponents. With most boat arrivals still coming from countries which are a long way from being declared “safe”, then the grant rate will stay high - and the pull factor will remain. Opening up “safe and legal” routes such as the community sponsorship scheme of the work / study protection visa won’t work either. They might appease the left -but disappointed applicants will still take to the boats, and asylum intake will continue to rise.

As things stand, her best hope of reducing boat arrivals is continued bad weather in the English Channel. Which might not, in the end, be enough to give her the legacy she seeks.